Crypto Chartbook: Built not Bought

Built not bought

Why?  The most difficult part in trading is execution. No matter if you trade on a neighbors hunch or a computerized trading system, it is sheer impossible to execute a foreigner’s system. You might spend thousands of dollars on a sophisticated black box software and will find yourself turning it off at exactly the worst moment.

Trading is psychology! When a stranger’s advice hit a series of losses you simply can’t stand the heat anymore. Right at that point though, the winning trades might follow. Consequently you underperform the system since you skipped the execution of those vital winners. Built not bought.

BTC-USDT, Monthly Chart

BTC-USDT, monthly chart as of May 25th, 2020

One core component for ending up in the green is a roadmap. A high time frame overview of what your trading instrument is doing from a larger perspective. In the case of Bitcoin we are finding ourselves at exciting times of a possible triangle breakout to the upside. A strong supply zone right below actual price, supports the general tone to be bullish.

BTC-USDT, Daily Chart – Aggressive Early Entry:

BTC-USDT, daily chart as of May 25th, 2020

With the principles of our quad exit strategy minimizing risk, we already took an aggressive weekly long entry based on the above daily 40 simple moving average support and other key factors.

Weekly Chart, Built Not Bought, BTC-USDT versus XMR-USDT, Bitcoin Leading:

BTC-USDT versus XMR-USDT, weekly chart as of May 25th, 2020

To further reduce risk we use an inter-market relationship we recently extracted. The above weekly chart depicts the relationship between Bitcoin (white line) and Monero (dark blue line).

Points 1,2 and 3 are time starting points where you can make out that Bitcoin has found its recent absolute low within that week.

From those points on Bitcoin prices advanced and built over the next weeks double  or triple bottoms. Illustrated by rising green lines. Most likely these price advances created in most trading systems confirmed long entries.

While Bitcoin at the starting points had its recent lows, Monero actually continued each time trading lower in the weeks to follow. Indicated by falling orange lines.

One way of taking advantage of this market relationship between those two trading vehicles would be of taking a confirmed Bitcoin long entry signal and rather trade the still suppressed Monero prices. Risk is smaller due to the tighter stop and better risk-reward ratio. Consequently one could potentially get more bang for the buck.

In a way Bitcoin can be used as a leading indicator for a Monero trade.

BTC-USDT versus XMR-USDT, Weekly Chart, Built Not Bought, Good Exit Timing:

BTC-USDT versus XMR-USDT, weekly chart as of May 25th, 2020 b

Let us now look at exits. We find a similar relationship to be mutually beneficial to time exits well on Monero through Bitcoin price observation.

We would like to encourage the reader to find very similar relationships extended through our whole portfolio. This way feeling more familiar with our entry and exit timing. As a result making principles and market relationships that we observed your own as well.

Built not bought

It is the series of trades that make a long term winner, not an individual trade. Since we do not have an intuitive aspect as humans for thinking in probabilities we need to gain psychological strength elsewhere for proper execution. Only in depth knowledge of a trading system paired with repetition of reinforced positive results can lead to execution confidence. We are aware that not everybody can master all aspects of becoming a successful investor in creating their own systems from scratch. There are no free lunches though and as such we encourage to take our trading principles, stack them and make them at least partially your own. You can’t just buy a Ferrari and immediatly expect to win the race. Looking under the hood and being aware of the core components, in addition of taking at least a few driving lessons, is part of becoming a winner.

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About the Author: Korbinian Koller

Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent.Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire